Breakin’ Down State of the New NBA -- Saints Guy Style

Those that know me (and you shouldn’t because I’m anonymous) know that I’m a football fan first, basketball fan second. I was raised in a football house, spent a lifetime watching football to the point of extremity, and I talk football with my entourage any time I can. It’s something engrained in The Saints Guy DNA.

But I also love basketball. As a kid, I deluded myself into thinking three things: that I would grow up to be a rock star, a professional wrestler and somehow play for the 1995 Orlando Magic. (All of these are sadly true. In my mind, I always imagined either Nick Anderson or Dennis Scott would contract malaria or the Ebola virus and that head coach Brian Hill would find me in the stands to hit three-pointers to beat the Rockets in the Finals. Afterward, I’d jump off the top of the cage and give a Flying Elbow Drop to Big Van Vader and headline a Winger concert when the match was over. On second thought, let’s just forget I said anything.)

Basketball has always fascinated me for one simple reason: I can’t figure out for the life of me how one can coach the sport. I plead total ignorance when it comes to this area of hoops. I’ve watched plenty of coaches draw up plays and try to explain to me how they would work, but I just can’t figure it out. Football is different in the capacity that you run a set play in between downs and have a small break to make adjustments within the play clock window. That’s not true with basketball. Everything has to be done on the fly. Coaches can all but predict exactly where defenders on going to be on the floor just by the offenses they coach. I’ve always been impressed by good coaching and how the good ones coach the sport.

So let’s fast-forward to the 2007-08 NBA season that just ended with a Boston Celtics championship. That was the icing on the cake on arguably the most refreshing season since the mid-90s.

It began with a bizarre draft scenario where Ray Allen ended up at Boston after the SEATTLE Supersonics decided to unload one of its stars because of shady dealings regarding the organizations future move to Oklahoma City. Soon after, Kevin Garnett joined the Celtics and everybody (rightfully so) started talking title contention for the Green.

On the West Coast, Laker management had no idea what to do. Kobe Bryant was clearly the best player in the game still suiting up. Heck, even as unhappy as he had been in the past couple of seasons, he still hung 81 points in the 2005-06 season and got his team back into the playoffs the next without Shaq. How do you give up on the game’s best current player?

Giving you the backgrounds on these two situations is important for one huge reason that’s going to change the future of the National Basketball Association: 2007-08 proved that a superstar can be disgruntled for as long as he wants, pitch a huge fit and still get his way.

This was true on both contending teams. Boston’s superstar for nearly the past 10 years has been Paul Pierce. In 2002, The Truth willed the Celtics to come back from a 21-point deficit against the New Jersey Nets and looked like he was becoming one of the Top 5 NBA players of the new millennium. Well, when the Celtics win-loss record began to go south, so did his attitude. Finally, over the summer, he reportedly made a friendly bet with Kobe about who would get traded first. That’s not what you want your superstar to be about.

Meanwhile, Kobe was still being Kobe: throwing his teammates under the bus and making trade demands on The Stephen A. Smith Show (which thank God has been removed from my Sirius Satellite Radio). Every media outlet was trying to figure out ways to get Kobe to Chicago before the season had even started. Lakers owner Jerry Buss had no idea what to do here, and I’m not sure anybody would.

So what happened? Seattle gave Boston the best thing since Pearl Jam in Ray Allen. Minnesota soon followed and gave Boston the best thing since Ray Allen in a joke of a trade for Al Jefferson, Ryan Gomes, Sebastian Telfair, Gerald Green, Theo Ratliff and some cash. And I don’t care if Al Jefferson was included in this trade; if former Celtic legend Kevin McHale wasn’t involved as the Wolves’ VP of Operations, it doesn’t happen. Don’t ever forget that.

And don’t get cocky, Laker fans. I’m coming for you next.

During the season, the Memphis Grizzlies apparently contracted Level 2 Kevin McHalitis and practically gave L.A. Pau Gasol for Kwame Browe, Javaris Crittenton, Aaron McKie, the rights to the younger Gasol brother, two first round picks and a dinner for two at Outback. Watch this: I’m about to copy and paste from a previous paragraph and use Find+Replace. [And I don’t care if the dinner for two at Outback was included in this trade; if former Laker legend Jerry West wasn’t involved as the Grizzlies’ President of Operations, it doesn’t happen. Don’t ever forget that.]

Both trades were pretty shady. The only reason the Minnesota/Boston trade is “justifiable” is because the Wolves did get Al Jefferson out of the deal, a kid plenty of folks see a future in. You can’t even come close to saying that about the Memphis/L.A. trade, except for maybe the first round picks. But they’re all but guaranteed to be late first-rounders because the Lakers aren’t going anywhere anytime soon barring a tragic accident or another hotel employee in Colorado.

But The Saints Guy digresses. You see, quick fixes can work in the NBA. It’s the only professional team sport where this is especially true; that a team can go out and get star players and have an immediate impact on championship contention. Football and baseball are far too team oriented in nature, mainly because there are practically double the players on the field compared to basketball.

Think about it this way. If you have a superstar quarterback and bring in a couple of all-star caliber wide receivers during the offseason, sure you’d see some improvement. But that’s less than 30 percent of your offense on the field and maybe 5 percent of your total team.

In basketball, you can make the same sort of deal and all of a sudden, 60 percent of the your starting is suddenly revamped and that still 20 percent of your total roster. That’s a significant jump in talent and, as the Boston Celtics proved, can take you from the worst record in the East one season and NBA World Champion the next.

Star players will start to emulate Pierce’s and Bryant’s attitude before the 2007-08 season began to unfurl as they got their respective ways. Pierce’s help came before the season began, and Kobe’s help came during the middle of the season.

(Side note: After slamming these two stars so much in this column, I do need to make this point: there is a significant difference between The Truth and Kobe in this one capacity: Pierce just wanted to be on a good team that did the right things and contended for championships. It’s not an excuse for his behavior; it just keeps in it perspective. Kobe gets no pass here. He single-handedly dismantled the Lakers after 2004 when Jerry Buss sent Shaq packing to Miami. L.A. could have been a dynasty for at least another four or five years after the collapse to Detroit in 2003. There’s a chance Kobe would have the same amount of rings if not more as *gasp* MJ had he not been so arrogant. There’s no sympathy for either of these guys, but Pierce’s pre-2007-08 attitude is clearly the less of two evils.)

Professional sports ownership has mistakenly bought into the notion that if you have a superstar player, you should do everything in your power to keep him happy even if he is killing your team on and off the court. Look what Vince Carter did to the poor people of Toronto (Watch a Canada-heavy episode of South Park, multiply it by 10,000 and you’ll come close to what Vinsanity did to our neighbors to the north). It got so bad for Toronto they finally shipped him to New Jersey where (surprise) he hasn’t exactly been knocking down any NBA title doors.

Back to the present, basketball fans just watched a very enjoyable NBA postseason from top to bottom. From our super-talented Chris Paul to the epic Phoenix/San Antonio series to Boston nearly winning a championship without winning a road game to the Lakers playing great all-around ball. It was the perfect way to sweep under the rug the preseason superstar whining and complaining because these teams were winning.

Ask yourself: what will you do when it’s your superstar holding your team hostage? It’s so much more difficult to dump these guys in the NBA because of the way contracts are tailored (The exact opposite is the NFL, which is another column. Surely there’s a happy medium somewhere). Yes, this worked for Boston (and L.A.) this past season. But ultimately, will it be worth it?

Let’s examine this scenario: Suppose in five years Kevin Durant is averaging 23 points per game for the Oklahoma City Bandits, but they’ve been getting beat in the first round of the playoffs for three straight years. Now, Durant wants to be on an NBA title contender, and he’s either going to demand they meet his needs by trading him or bringing in a more star-studded supporting cast. What will management do then? What can management do then?

Here’s the thing, and this is the important part of the column: Every team cannot be a title contender in the league year in and year out. Sure, every team would like to be, but it’s just not possible. There is maybe one dynasty at a time, there are a couple of perennial playoff contenders, but the rest of the league is comprised of teams that can only make a couple of flashes of greatness. It’s just the truth. But the one thing every team has is at least one star player on the roster. And now every star player is going to realize that all it will take is a sour attitude, and he’s going to get his way, even if it is not reasonably possible for the team he plays for.

Boston and L.A. proved that this tactic not only works, it’s acceptable. Let’s hope this isn’t the future of the game.

The Seventy-Million Dollar Man: Becoming the Third Highest Paid D-Lineman and Second Highest Paid Will Smith

Quick. Name BOTH starting defensive ends for your favorite team. Easy right?

Well, now try to name BOTH starting defensive ends playing for a divisional rival. Or last year’s Super Bowl winner. Anyone?

Not quite as easy unless you first took a side-trip to ESPN.com (thesaintsguyisinnowayaffiliatedwithespn.com). While one can easily name the starting quarterback for nearly each of the 32 teams, their natural, book-end foils are not quite so recognizable. People think all quarterbacks could go to law school, finish in two semesters and somehow get a medical license in the process. It’s an understandable stereotype; everybody wants the quarterback to be a genius.

On the flip side, defensive linemen are often seen as rabid cavemen bent on destroying the pretty boy in a similar way something that costs 79 cents at Taco Bell works on your colon. It’s get in the backfield and cause as much as damage as possible, right?

While that’s a pipe dream (/end colon jokes), defensive linemen have more than that to be concerned with. That’s even more so with defensive ends given that they have five or six things to worry about as soon as the ball is snapped (Did he hand the ball off? Is that the tight end in the flat? Are they doubling my DT? Is Lost DVRing this week?), and after the play has started, they must adjust accordingly.

(Side note: As much praise as I’m singing to the ends, I want you to know I’m not taking anything away from the tackles. Defensive ends and tacklers are similar in nature, yet strikingly different. Take a starting pitcher and the setup man. Both pitchers, yet both have to be wired differently. There’s a reason you don’t see the starting pitcher on the mound with his team down 5-2 in the top of the seventh inning, and it’s not just because his arm is about to fall off. It takes one kind of person to be a starter and another to be a middle reliever. Which is why I love what the Yankees are doing to Joba Chamberlain’s career even more. Anyway, the point of this column is to give myself reassurance in spending $70m on anything. So for the sake of today’s column, defensive ends are Tracy Morgan “Uncle Jemima’s Pure Mashed Liquor” and everybody else is Tracy Morgan “Dominican Lou.”)

True fans of football appreciate what a good defensive line with skilled ends can do for a team (*cough*New York Giants*cough). And true, the Saints took this a little too seriously over the past few years (since 2000, the Saints have drafted FOUR defensive linemen in the first round or with their first pick in the draft), but it’s still not a bad idea. Linemen make a world of difference, and yet they aren’t given the credit they deserve.

So enter the likes of Charles Grant and Will Smith (see, even The Saints Guy can name the starting DE’s on his team). These are two tremendously talented guys who are still fairly young. It takes monster contracts to keep players like that in today’s NFL, so naturally, it was Will Smith’s turn. And (for cryin’ out loud I’ve said this in this three blogs) he’s STILL not contracted to the sum new Falcons' QB Matt Ryan is, and he hasn’t seen the professional field.

Let’s review the 2004 NFL Draft. For two years the Saints took a defensive lineman in the first round or with their first pick. Grant had been taken 33rd overall (the first pick in the second round, but the Saints first pick overall) in 2002 while, a year later, Johnathan “Golden Choral” Sullivan was drafted sixth overall after the Saints traded up with two first round picks. Dig a little deeper you say? Well, what could we have had had Haslett and Co. not traded those two picks away for Stay Puff? New Orleans had both the 17th and 18th picks that were dealt to the Cardinals. Available at or around those picks? Troy Polamalu, Calvin Pace, possibly a trade up for Marcus Trufant. Heck, even Larry Johnson and Willis McGahee would have been available. So you can imagine the disgust Saints fans have in drafting linemen at that point.

Back to 2004. This was the draft where the Saints ended up with the 18th overall pick after an 8-8 record. The damage Aaron Brooks had been doing would only be upended by Hurricane Katrina two seasons later. Saints fans were growing stagnant hearing rumors of an unhappy owner threatening to move. And with their first pick in the 2004 NFL Draft, the New Orleans Saints selected Will Smith, a defensive end out of Ohio State University.

I’ll never forget where I was that day. Chaz was grilling out at his and Liberace’s house and we, of course, were glued to the TV. Liberace was elated that the Broncos had selected D.J. Williams from Miami the pick before, and we had to watch as Will Smith’s name was called.

It was almost the final nail in my Black & Gold coffin. I don’t even remember who I wanted that day to be honest; but I do remember screaming in my head not a d-lineman; not a d-lineman over and over again right before Tagliabue read the pick. And after Smith was official, I wouldn’t have cared if they had called Mr. Irrelevant from the season before Ryan Hoag, the wideout from Gustavus Adolphus (I had to copy and paste that; I didn’t make it up); I just wanted anybody else besides a d-lineman.

Fast forward a little. In between the draft and the season not a whole lot else happened. Except for the fact word starting getting out about Will Smith in mini-camps and whatnot. Chaz all but makes the drive during preseason to Saints’ Camp in Jackson MS if he can, and he was high on this kid and started convincing me, too. And Smith’s 2004 rookie stats don't lie, either: 16 games played, 4 starts, 7.5 sacks.

Saints fans knew they had something special, and he hasn’t let down. In four seasons, he’s accumulated 33.5 sacks; nearly nine a season. Not too shabby. And going back to the contracts issue, you all but have to lock these guys up to big money if you want to keep them.

Take this example: you know how you and a friend see a preview for a movie you both want to see and you agree to go with each other? And you know how crappy you feel when you find out that friend went with one of his friends to the same movie?

That’s kind of how I’d feel if we had lost Will Smith to another team because of contract issues. He’s a great player, and an important key to our defense. Can you say with confidence that we're a contender without him? It was a little scary to hear he was holding out because he didn’t like his monetary situation, and I started having flashbacks to the Saints front office of old. Would we pay him? Is he going to sit out? Did the Sedrick Ellis D-Line Solidification happen for nothing?

That’s obviously not the case any more. Smith signed for the money he clearly deserves. The Saints got it out of the way quickly and can now move forward.

And, yes, it may seem like a lot of money. But just remember that when he’s dismembering Matt Ryan’s $72m corpse on the field come this fall. You can take that contract to the bank.

Nostra-Saints Guy: Bold Predictions for an Italicized and Underlined Tomorrow (Part II)

Now for the NFC Predictions (the AFC Predictions are here).

NFC NORTH

Winner: Green Bay Packers

And the 2008 Division That Nobody Has A Clue Who Is Going To Win Award goes to the NFC North! If there was one division that has absolutely no elite quarterback in the ranks, it’s these four teams. Bears? Grossman. Vikings? Jackson. Lions? Kitna. Packers? Aaron Rogers/2008 Draft pu-pu platter. Not one quarterback you’re taking as a back up in fantasy or trading for in Madden 09.

So why the Pack? Well, they had more than just Favre last year, even though he was the one who threw away the NFC Championship Game in overtime at Lambeau. A talented, more mature defense is what Nostra-Saints Guy believes will win this division. If the offensive skill positions can fall into place (i.e., the post-Favre QB era), Green Bay still will win the North, just not with 13 regular season wins.

Contender: Detroit Lions

Quarterback Jon Kitna predicts (for the second season in a row) 10 wins for the Detroit Lions. Well, while Nostra-Saints Guy by no means sees that many victories in his writings, the Lions were on the brink last season and should be again. Lots of people also think Detroit found their starting running back in the third round of the draft in Central Florida’s Kevin Smith. It may not be easy, but the Lions should by next in line.

(Side note: Why not the Vikings? As much as I love Adrian Peterson, it’s hard to get behind Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback. Minnesota has pretty much given him the keys for at least the next two seasons, and even though they acquired Gus Frerotte’s dead body and drafted USC pretty boy John David Booty, you can bank on Jackson starting at least six games this year. Nostra-Saints Guy says they won’t win half the games he starts.)

NFC EAST

Winner: Dallas Cowboys

Choosing the Cowboys to win anything is hard for any Saints fan. We’re supposed to hate the Cowboys with every fiber of our being, right? Having to deal with North Louisianians taking to the Cowboys is the ultimate insult for any Saints fan. It’s inexcusable. It’s the equivalent of living in New England and wearing a Yankees cap. And nobody talks about it. It’s like if you go north of Alexandria, you start fighting the Cowboys fans off with sticks. There’s absolutely no reason this is okay.

(Side note: Seriously, how great would it have been to somehow have them in our division after the Texans gave us a 32-team league? New Orleans and Dallas are WAY closer than, say, Tampa Bay or Philadelphia? The Saints Guy will begin lobbying for a new realignment as soon as he gets a little clout with the commish.)

Anyways, Dallas returns a good team, and while I’d like to remind you I’m not predicting how the postseason will go (I’m looking at you Wade Phillips and Tony Romo), the Cowboys did the right things in the off-season on the field (Pac-Man acquisition, draft and T.O.’s contract) and should win the division.

Contender: New York Jersey Giants

See above about not predicting the postseason. The Giants got hot at the right time and made the run of the millennium last year. So that’s the main reason Nostra-Saints Guy sees New York/Jersey as the contender for the division. Nothing else.

(What The Saints Guy wants you to forget is what he said about Eli Manning here before the great Latin-American sabbatical. You can bank on it that Eli read this web-column and really turned up the heat. After it was written, he lead his team to a 6-2 record en route to a Super Bowl win. Giants fans, you’re welcome.)

NFC WEST

Winner: Seattle Seahawks

This is the token pick for the NFC West. Somewhat similar to the AFC East in that there is one good/great team and three awful teams, the Seahawks' only real question mark was left after the release of former NFL MVP Shaun Alexander. The new starting running back? It will be interesting to see who is picked out of T.J. Duckett, Julius Jones or even Maurice Morris.

Contender: Arizona Cardinals

Combine a healthy pretty boy Matt Leinhart, a proven back Edgerrin James and star wide receivers Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin with an up-and-coming head coach and you’ll get a team that will be just a year away from winning the division. For the second year in a row.

NFC SOUTH

Winner: New Orleans Saints

That’s right, The NFC South Curse ends this season! What’s The NFC South Curse you ask? Since Tampa Bay won Super Bowl XVIII, the team that finished last in a season would finish first the next season. I’ll even break it down for you.

2002 Last Place - Carolina (7-9)
2003 First Place - Carolina (11-5)
2003 Last Place - Atlanta (5-11)
2004 First Place - Atlanta (11-5)
2004 Last Place - Tampa Bay (5-11)
2005 First Place - Tampa Bay (11-5)
2005 Last Place - New Orleans (3-13)
2006 First Place - New Orleans (10-6)
2006 Last Place - Tampa Bay (4-12)
2007 First Place - Tampa Bay (9-7)
2007 Last Place - Atlanta (4-12)

So if you are going by The Curse, that means that the Vick-less Falcons that signed a quarterbacking kid who hasn’t taken a professional snap to a $72m contract will break through and take the division from a New Orleans Saints team that seems to be on the brink. Nostra-Saints Guy just doesn't see that happening.

Homerism aside, it’s tough to pick against these guys after seeing what the offense can do when it hits on all cylinders. Even after losing Deuce and starting 0-4 last season, New Orleans showed flashes of greatness during the next four games (beating Seattle in Seattle [which New Orleans NEVER does it seems] and blowing out a very talented Jacksonville team) and stayed in most games for the rest of the year en route to a 7-9 record. It wasn’t a banner finish by any sorts, but Nostra-Saints Guy was pleased with the draft (USC’s Sedrick Ellis gives New Orleans a Top 3 defensive line in the league) and key off-season acquisitions (Getting Jonathan Vilma from the Jets will be the most-underrated signing of the year. Nostra-Saints Guy has spoken!)

With all that said, Nostra-Saints Guy had no beef with his nepotistic prediction that the Saints will storm out of the gates, break The Curse and win the NFC South.

Contender: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

After all that is it even worth a paragraph? Sure.

Tampa Bay will contend only in the sense that Carolina and Atlanta will be down again. Jeff Garcia’s body is breaking down, Cadillac’s knee WILL pop again (take it from a fantasy owner) and the draft wasn’t that great. And even after dealing with almost those same factors last season, Tampa Bay found a way to get it done. They just won’t win as many as the Saints.

So, with the 2008 AFC and NFC predictions done, Nostra-Saints Guy will return to his cave on the bayou where by the light of a candle and the sound of his pontoon boat, he will rest until time to predict the records for each NFL team as the season draws nearer.

Nostra-Saints Guy: Bold Predictions for an Italicized and Underlined Tomorrow

The Saints Guy is proud to introduce a brand new section of the ever-growing Saints Guy Blog Universe: Nostra-Saints Guy.

For over 150,000 years, Nostra-Saints Guy has been predicting the future from his cave on the bayou. Ever careful with his visions, he has prepared his predictions for the 2008 NFL Season beginning with the AFC. (And the NFC predictions will come later this week.)

AFC NORTH

Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers

The winner for this division was the easy part. The Steelers are proven on nearly every area of the board. They did the right things in the draft by taking Rashard Mendenhall and Limas Sweed. Nostra-Saints Guy also predicts Dennis Dixon will do some good things in the future if he can land on a team without a franchise quarterback.

The only real question mark was the puzzling decision not to give Alan Faneca the money and keep the anchor of the O-Line. It left the door open for the Jets to come in and make him the highest paid offensive lineman in NFL history at five-year, $40m. Had they handled this in 2007, this could have been an even more dangerous team.

Contender: Cleveland Browns/Cincinnati Bengals

It was tough for Nostra-Saints Guy to narrow down the two Ohio teams, so he went the easy way out and picked both. Cleveland showed promise last year, but does one trust Derek Anderson to be a pro-bowl caliber quarterback two years running? And the Bengals are on the verge of losing a pro-bowl wide-out and possibly removing a showboating locker room tumor. Time will tell this one.

AFC EAST

Winner: New England Patriots

Saying the New England Patriots will win the AFC East is like saying Flavor Flav experimented with cocaine at least once in his life. Let’s move on.

Contender: N/A

As tough as it was to pick between two contenders for the AFC North, it was even tougher to pick one in the AFC East. Miami, Buffalo, AND the Jets all vying for New England’s crumbs? Would that these three teams could share the NFC South with the Saints. Dear Lord.

AFC SOUTH

Winner: Indianapolis Colts

Yes, the team that practically borders our northern neighbors will end up winning the geological oddity known as the AFC South. But as tough as this division is going to be, I’m not picking against the Colts. Even if Marvin Harrison did shoot that dude, I’m not picking against the Colts. Just keep repeating that phrase in your head as long as you’re not betting on them in the AFC Championship Game.

Contender: Tennessee Titans

I’m not taking the easy way out in this one, and I may get hammered for not showing love to a very talented Jacksonville team. But the Titans had a slightly better draft than the Jaguars (which is like saying Tab tastes slightly better than moose pee), and they eeked out a playoff spot with 10 wins. You could mark the Titans down a thousand times over if they had taken Texas wide receiver Limas Sweed in the second round of this year's draft, giving Vince a target he was used to in college. Decisions like that seem to make perfect sense, right? Reunite two skill position teammates who won a national title in college is a no-brainer. How come nobody does that if given the opportunity like Tennessee?

And do ask yourself. Vince Young or David Garrard? Always go with the better quarterback.

AFC WEST

Winner: San Diego Chargers

As long as LaDainian Tomlinson doesn’t manage to somehow contract polio, the Chargers should remain the top pick for the AFC West. They seem like they’re getting into the same sort of groove the Patriots and Colts are in; meaning they get it done regular season and find a way into the playoffs. The challenge here will not quite be as difficult as the AFC South, but certainly tougher than the AFC East.

Contender: Kansas City Chiefs

Great googily moogily, this was a tough sell given the quarterbacks have a weaker pulse than former president Gerald Ford (too soon?). But any team that solidifies the defensive line like KC did gets a Nostra-Saints Guy quill of approval, thanks to an incredible draft (having Glenn Dorsey at the five spot is like getting a flat outside the Playboy Mansion) and a great signing (nabbing Jared Allen from the Vikings). The Chiefs did everything right in the offseason.

Stay tuned for the Nostra-Saints Guy NFC predictions to come soon.